PolyGuard - Resolution Risk Scanner

PolyGuard - Resolution Risk Scanner **Summary**: Detect high-risk markets before disputed resolutions cost you money --- ## Description **Stop Losing Money to Disputed Resolutions** You did everything right. You researched the market, analyzed the probabilities, placed your bet with conviction. The outcome happened exactly as you predicted. And then you lost anyway—because UMA voters decided the resolution criteria meant something different than what you reasonably understood. This isn't hypothetical. It happens on Polymarket regularly. PolyGuard scans markets for resolution risk before you trade, identifying ambiguous language and subjective criteria that could lead to disputed outcomes. Know the danger before your money is on the line. --- **The Hidden Risk in Prediction Markets** When you trade on Polymarket, you're not just betting on real-world outcomes. You're betting on how those outcomes will be interpreted under the market's resolution criteria. And that interpretation isn't always straightforward. Polymarket uses UMA's decentralized oracle system to resolve disputes. When a market's outcome is contested, anonymous UMA token holders vote on the resolution. These voters may have different interpretations than you. They may prioritize different evidence. They may reach conclusions that contradict what seems obvious. Consider some real examples: A market asked whether TikTok would be "banned" in the US by a certain date. TikTok went offline briefly, then came back hours later after government assurances. Was it banned? UMA voters said yes. Many traders who bet "no"—reasoning that a temporary outage followed by restoration wasn't a real ban—lost their positions. A market about a public figure's actions used language that could be interpreted multiple ways. Photographic evidence seemed to support one outcome, but UMA voters decided differently based on their reading of the criteria. These aren't edge cases. They're structural features of how prediction markets with decentralized resolution work. The question isn't whether disputed resolutions will happen—it's whether you'll be caught in one. --- **What Makes a Market Risky** Not all markets carry equal resolution risk. Some have clear, objective criteria: "Will the official unemployment rate published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics exceed 5% in January 2025?" Others are riddled with ambiguity: "Will Company X be widely considered successful by the end of the year?" PolyGuard analyzes market text to identify specific risk factors: **Subjective Language** Phrases like "sole discretion," "in the opinion of," or "reasonable judgment" are red flags. They explicitly acknowledge that resolution depends on someone's interpretation rather than objective facts. When you see these phrases, you're not betting on what will happen—you're betting on how someone will perceive what happened. **Vague Criteria** Words like "soon," "near future," or "significant" lack precise definitions. What counts as "soon"? A week? A month? A year? Without specificity, these terms become battlegrounds for interpretation during resolution. **Multiple Interpretation Paths** Some markets are structured in ways that allow different reasonable readings. "Will X happen or be announced?" creates two potential resolution triggers with potentially different timings and verification standards. **High-Risk Categories** Historical data shows certain categories experience more disputes than others. Political markets, cryptocurrency predictions, AI developments, and cultural events tend to involve more subjective judgment calls than, say, sports outcomes with official scoreboards. **Missing Verification Sources** Markets that don't specify authoritative sources for resolution leave room for argument about what evidence counts. "Official government announcement" is clearer than "credible reports." --- **How PolyGuard Works** PolyGuard runs continuous analysis on active Polymarket markets, scanning resolution criteria for risk indicators. Each market receives a score from 1 to 5: **Score 1-2 (Low Risk)**: Clear, objective resolution criteria. Specific dates, official sources, verifiable numbers. Lower likelihood of dispute. **Score 3 (Medium Risk)**: Some ambiguous language detected. Resolution criteria could reasonably be interpreted multiple ways. Review carefully before trading. **Score 4-5 (High Risk)**: Multiple red flags present. Subjective language, vague timeframes, or historically disputed category. Proceed with significant caution. The scoring algorithm weighs multiple factors: - Presence of high-risk phrases (+2 points each) - Presence of medium-risk phrases (+1 point each) - Presence of clear resolution indicators (-1 point each) - Category historical dispute rate (+1 point if elevated) - Vague timeframe language (+1 point if detected) - Multiple interpretation structures (+1 point if present) This produces a nuanced assessment rather than a binary safe/unsafe classification. --- **Real-Time Protection While You Browse** When you visit Polymarket, PolyGuard activates automatically. A floating panel appears showing markets with elevated risk scores. You'll see: - Total count of flagged markets - Risk score and level for each - Specific reasons why the market was flagged - Direct links to view the full market The panel is draggable—position it wherever works for your workflow. Minimize it when you need focus. Close it entirely if you prefer using only the popup dashboard. For individual markets, PolyGuard injects warning badges directly into the Polymarket interface. High-risk markets display a warning indicator next to their titles. Hover over the badge to see the specific risk factors identified. This integration means you don't need to actively check PolyGuard—it brings warnings to your attention as you naturally browse. --- **Popup Dashboard for Comprehensive Analysis** Click the PolyGuard icon in your browser toolbar…